Demography. Demographics are formal and real
Russia is one of the largest countries in the world in terms of population. What is the population in Russia today? And how has it changed over the years? You will learn about this from our article.
Population of Russia
The concept itself implies the number of residents permanently residing on its territory. The population of Russia is (as of January 2015) about 146 million 267 thousand inhabitants. This is the number of permanent population of the Russian Federation.
As we can see, the population of the Russian Federation was growing slowly until 1996. But after 1996, its noticeable decline began, which in the science of demography is called the process of depopulation. The decline in Russia's population continued until 2010. Scientists attribute population growth over the past 5 years not so much to an improvement in the birth-to-mortality ratio as to an increase in the influx of migrants from abroad.
Current demographic situation in the country
UN experts have described the current demographic situation in Russia as a demographic crisis. Thus, in our country there is an extremely high mortality rate. The causes of most of the deaths of Russians (almost 80%) are cardiovascular and cancer diseases.
The demography of Russia has long been a cause of concern for all sociologists, political scientists and other specialists monitoring the process of population reproduction in the country. According to scientists, the country has been in a state of severe crisis for 20 years, and the population continues to actively decline.
Population policy
This term refers to the activities that are carried out by government agencies and other social organizations in order to regulate the process of standard reproduction of the country's inhabitants. It is precisely this that should have a positive influence on the formation of a regime in which Russians will be able to engage in reproduction.
It is under the control of these bodies that the demographic situation in the country is located; they must react most sharply to changes or persistence of trends regarding the size and composition of the population. The dynamics of growth and loss of citizens, migration, quality of family composition - all this is in the area of responsibility of data
Why is it important?
Based on what the demographics of Russia will be, the country's leadership will be able to formulate a socio-economic policy that the state will adhere to in the future. Demographic successes and failures directly affect how Russian society will develop and what path it will choose for this.
The quality of life of Russians, the economic situation in the country, its defense capability, social and political stability in the world - all this depends on how the development and formation of labor resources occurs in the state. Accordingly, these resources must be taken from somewhere, which is why the importance of competent formation of demographic policy increases significantly.
Fertility
Over the past 20 years, there has been a steady depopulation of the population in the country, i.e. a decline in the birth rate, which will subsequently lead to a decrease in the number of Russian residents and labor resources. The main parameters by which the demographic situation in the country is determined are birth rate and death rate.
In particular, only 1.3 million people were born in 2000, which is 20% less than in the early 1990s. Since 2001, the country has seen an increase in the birth rate in all its regions. On average, population growth due to the birth rate over 15 years was about 18%, but this is only the tip of the iceberg.
Mortality
Despite the natural increase in Russian citizens that has marked the last decade, the demographic situation continues to remain difficult. The main reason for this is mortality. On average, up to two million people die in Russia every year, most often these are able-bodied citizens. The causes of premature death are different in each case, but most often we are talking about crimes and disasters.
Between 1995 and 2015, the total population of Russia decreased by almost five million people, and the situation remains quite difficult. Thus, the birth rate and death rate in the country cannot overlap each other in any way to create at least a more or less positive balance.
Migration
There are a number of alternative factors that need to be taken into account by all those concerned with population issues. The demographic situation has become seriously complicated due to migration flows, which changed especially rapidly from 1990 to 1999. As a result, the eastern and northern regions of the country lost some of their inhabitants.
According to statistics, only in the 1990s, 8.5% of the total number of residents left the northern regions. The number of migrants from the CIS, who have long chosen Russia as a state where they can make good money, has also decreased significantly. Now 2.3 times fewer people from the former CIS travel to Russia than in the late 1990s. However, experts note an increase in the number of illegal migrants who enter the territory of the Russian Federation but are not registered.
Age characteristics
Demographic problems in Russia also affected the average age of the population. At the beginning of 2000, it was first noticed that there were 560 thousand more pensioners in the country than children and teenagers. After another seven years, the gap increased by 7.5 million people, and by 2015 it had already exceeded 10 million.
Despite all this, the number of pensioners is decreasing quite slightly; the low birth rate, however, is not able to change the situation for the better. The average age of a Russian resident, according to the results of the population census held in 2011, is 39 years, whereas before that the figure was 37.7 years.
Ethnic groups
The ethnic characteristics of the inhabitants of Russia have long been undergoing serious changes. According to statistics, population growth is observed in the south of the country: in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan. All other regions show more modest results, so the ethnic component continues to change.
Thus, the demography of Russia directly depends on the region in which newborn babies are most often born. Among other things, the formation of the immigration structure is carried out due to the excessive influence of the growth of representatives of those peoples who predominantly live outside of Russia.
Overall Impact
An analysis of Russia's demography shows that, based on emerging problems related to mortality and fertility, new complexities are being formed that directly affect a number of factors. First of all, we are talking about difficulties in ensuring the defense capability of the state and reducing economic potential.
The consequence of all this is a significant deterioration in the quality of those resources that must master the country's labor specialties. The apotheosis is the growing social tension in Russia, due to which domestic conflicts on ethnic grounds often arise, fraught with an increase in mortality. All these factors confronted the government with the need to form a systematic approach to the country’s demographic policy.
Taken measures
In 2000, the Government of the Russian Federation developed and adopted the concept of demographic policy, which should be in effect until the end of 2015. Its main goal was to stabilize the total number of Russian citizens and prepare the preconditions that will subsequently lead to stable demographic growth in the country.
The demographics of the Russian population at that time left much to be desired, so the following were chosen as priority tasks:
- increase in life expectancy,
- improving the health of citizens,
- reduction of injuries and morbidity,
- stimulating the birth rate through additional social measures,
- strengthening the institution of family,
- creating opportunities for self-realization,
- control over immigration flows,
- smooth integration of migrants into Russian society.
Implementation of the concept
The demography of Russia is one of the government's priorities, which is why each region of the country in the early 2000s independently developed regional target programs to improve the situation. In parallel with this, active information and educational activities were carried out aimed at promoting the demographic policy that was formed in a particular region.
Since the 2000s, the Government has constantly developed measures to implement the concept, which set themselves the goal of increasing the population and its life expectancy. In particular, a program was introduced for compensation payments that mothers received after the birth of a child. New methods were also actively introduced to improve medical care and conduct correct prevention of mass and chronic diseases.
Demographic surveys
The structure of demography involves studying the situation not only over the last 20 years, but also over all periods of the existence of a particular state, region, or nation. In addition to fertility and mortality, there are a number of factors that are studied by this science. We are talking about the number of marriages and divorces, the evolution of causes of mortality, forecasts of demographic development, etc.
According to scientists, if all the activities that were planned in the concept adopted in 2000 are completed at least 50%, there is a chance that demographic problems in Russia will be solved. However, an accurate forecast can only be given based on data received from colleagues from other countries.
The most accurate subject that will answer the question of whether the demography of Russia has changed is statistics. At the end of 2015 - beginning of 2016, it is planned to summarize the previously adopted concept. After the analysis, it will become clear what has changed in the country’s demographic policy and where the course should now be headed. The Russian government has not yet announced exactly when it plans to sum up the results of fifteen years of work and when the results will be made public along with the official development plan for the next reporting period.
On this topic a couple of years ago. Now it’s time to update it and supplement it with the information that I have accumulated during this time. And so meet:
I warn you right away that I used for it only archival and official data from the Central Statistical Office of the USSR and Rosstat. There are no hypotheses from liberal demographers like Andreev, Darsky and Kharkova with their fantastic figures.
Started in 1913. Data from 50 European provinces of the Republic of Ingushetia were used, i.e. these are the best indicators. We have before us characteristic demography for a pre-industrial society with huge birth and death rates and a life expectancy of 31-33 years. While in Europe the typical life expectancy was around 45-50 years. You can read a little more about this.
The Bolsheviks' rise to power revolutionized everything, including demography. The entire 20s and 30s were characterized by a sharp and steady decrease in population mortality from the pre-revolutionary 35-30 ppm to 18-20, which, coupled with the high birth rate of the still peasant population, gave a maximum population increase of 25.7 ppm in 1928. It is also interesting to evaluate these achievements with pre-revolutionary demographic trends, which I showed with dotted arrows on the graph.
Stalin's forced reforms that began in the late 20s obviously affected demographic processes with a sharp and long-term decline in the birth rate in the late 20s and the first half of the 30s. The famine of 1933 gave a local jump in mortality with an excess mortality rate of 915 thousand people compared to the previous year. Throughout the USSR, about 2.5 million people died due to famine. For comparison, the liberal-Holodomor version gives a figure of 7 million people and a mortality rate of 70 ppm for the USSR. I discuss the discrepancies in numbers in detail here:
Next comes the Great Patriotic War. For 1941-1945 no data available. Direct losses from it are estimated from 16 to 27 million people. I once tried to show mortality rates for 1941-45 with all the losses. The picture turned out to be such that the highest mortality rate falls in 1943 and reaches a level of 69.5 ppm. Compare this figure with the fantasies of our famine liberals with their mortality rate of 70 ppm in 1933. Now ask yourself: how did it happen that in the most difficult year of the war, the overall mortality rate was less than the mortality rate of the much easier, peaceful year of 1933? In 1942, the country had everything: bombings, evacuation, battles, hunger, disease, the blockade of Leningrad. And the overall mortality rate turned out to be even less than in 1933, according to the famine survivors, when in the country, and not all of it, but only in some 3-4 regions, there was only famine and nothing more?
The post-war period is characterized by an increase in the birth rate and a sharp decrease in mortality. Improved living conditions and the widespread introduction of medical advances (antiseptics and antibiotics) are having an impact. There is a jump in mortality in 1947 from another crop failure, superimposed on the post-war devastation. This year's excess mortality rate is approximately 400 thousand people compared to the previous year.
The Khrushchev period was characterized by a continuation of the trends of the Stalin period until the beginning of the 3rd stage of the democratic transition with its sharp decline in the birth rate as a consequence of urbanization. If the Stalinist period can be called a period of accelerated industrialization, then the Khrushchev period is a period of accelerated urbanization.
Under Brezhnev, there was a gradual increase in mortality from 1965 to 1980. I discuss the reasons for this growth in detail here: In the 80s, this process stopped and the mortality trend from 1980 to 1990 shows a decrease. The birth rate is generally characterized by an increase with a surge from the measures of Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign with a decrease in the late 80s. The people smelled the fried smell of perestroika, and the beginning of the second echo of the Great Patriotic War also had an impact.
The reign of liberals during the Yeltsin and Putin period was characterized by a rapid and catastrophic deterioration of all indicators for a long period since 1992. The official demographic decline for this period is 13 million 240 thousand people, and if we count from the State Statistics Committee of the USSR in 1991, then the decline is 19.4 million people for 2010. The loss consists of losses from a decrease in the birth rate and excess mortality. The latter is estimated by various calculation methods from 4 to 14 million people over 20 years. According to my calculations, it is equal to 8-10 million people. One of the calculation methods can be viewed.
I will dwell separately on the Putin period. Since 2006, there has been an overcoming of catastrophic trends in Russian demography. The birth rate is rising and the mortality rate is falling, which over the past couple of years has led to a slight natural population increase of 0.1 and 0.2 ppm. I consider in detail the reasons for the rise in the birth rate.
In 2015, population growth in Russia amounted to 33 thousand 700 people
In our country in January-December 2015, 1 million 944 thousand 100 babies were born. 1 million 911 400 people died. The population growth amounted to 32 thousand 700 people.
Compared to 2014, the birth rate in 2015 decreased by 3,200 people, and the death rate by 2,200. Thus, in 2014, 1 million 947 thousand 300 babies were born, 1 million 913 thousand 600 people died.
The number of registered marriages (1 million 161 thousand) in 2015 was almost 2 times higher than the number of divorces (611 thousand 600). In 2014, people got married and divorced more often than in 2015 - the number of marriages amounted to 1 million 226 thousand, the number of divorces - 693 thousand 700.
General results of the vital statistics of the Russian Federation in 2015
For the fourth year now, Russians have been overturning demographers' forecasts.
After all, after 2011, our country was predicted to have a new failure, another crossbar of the “Russian cross”.
Since 2011, there are fewer and fewer potential mothers in Russia, because girls born during the demographic hole of the nineties are reaching adulthood, and the much more populous generations of the early seventies are dropping out of the process.
However, neither the economic crisis nor the reduction in the number of young women led to a decrease in the Russian birth rate. The statistical results of 2015 indicate that natural population growth continues in the Russian Federation.
In the table it looks like this:
Natural population growth of the Russian Federation (thousands of people)
If we compare with forecasts, everything is happening exactly the opposite.
Calculations based on the number of maternal generations suggested that from 2010 to 2015, the number of little Russians born should have decreased by 150-200 thousand, and the natural decline should have reached 400 thousand people per year.
But in fact, the birth rate is increasing and for the third year in a row it has steadily, although not by much, exceeded the death rate.
An increase in the birth rate against the background of a decrease in the number of mothers means only one thing: family size is growing in Russia. There are more and more parents with two and three children, and fewer with one child.
Indeed, the total fertility rate (TFR), which shows the average number of descendants a woman will leave if the frequency of births in the country remains at the current level, changed in the 21st century as follows:
The level achieved today is still lower than that which ensures simple replacement of generations, but higher than the level of any country in continental Europe, except France.
True, in France, the increase in the birth rate in recent years has been achieved mainly by migrants. In Russia, on the contrary, the positive trend of the last decade is entirely due to Russians.
The birth rate of the peoples of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia, previously characterized by large families, is now declining, gradually approaching the Russian average level. Using the figures obtained in 2015 as an example, it looks like this:
In a group of ten national regions with traditionally high birth rates (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kalmykia, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Tuva), 8,499 fewer people were born last year than in 2014.
In the group of sixty subjects of the Federation without national status, where the absolute majority of the population is Russian, 7,525 more people were born.
The trend seems even more contrasting if we consider that the number of potential mothers in Russian regions is decreasing due to the failure of the nineties, and in most national republics, where such a deep failure was not observed in the nineties, the maternal cohort continues to grow. That is, in the Caucasus there are more women of parental age and fewer babies, but in central Russia the opposite is true.
This suggests that the difference in family size between Russians and some national minorities, which developed in the second half of the twentieth century, is now shrinking even faster than can be judged by the absolute figures given above.
Finally, here are the ten regions where the birth rate grew at the highest rates in 2015:
- Sevastopol + 12.1%
- Kaluga region + 7.8%
- Nenets Autonomous Okrug + 6.3%
- St. Petersburg + 5.2%
- Moscow region + 5.2%
- Tula region + 4.0%
- Moscow + 3.5%
- Bryansk region + 3.0%
- Vladimir region + 3.0%
- Nizhny Novgorod region + 2.5%
It is symbolic that this rating is crowned by the hero city of Sevastopol, which has returned to its homeland. No less significant is that the leaders of the demographic revival are dominated by the regions of central and northwestern Russia, which recently experienced the most severe crisis.
It fell by almost 11%. During that year, about 1.7 million children were born in the country, which is 203 thousand less than in 2016. The only region of the country where a decline in the birth rate was not recorded was Chechnya (where it remained at the same level).
Although mortality in the country also decreased in 2017, this did not overcome natural depopulation (population loss).
About 144 million people live in Russia (since these are UN data, they do not include the population of Crimea, about 2 million people).
Many demographers cite accelerating urbanization as the main reason for the population decline: a rural family, for objective reasons, is larger than a city family, explains Doctor of Economics, Professor of RANEPA Alexander Shcherbakov, who explains the trends.
2002: Birth rate growth
A steady decline in the infant mortality rate has been recorded. In 2012, Russia switched to a new definition of live birth, which led to an increase in the infant mortality rate.
Mortality structure
2018
Number of deaths from drug use per million inhabitants. Map
Statistics on causes of death are distorted in order to “implement” presidential decrees
Since 2012, Russians have become less likely to die from diseases, the treatment of which President Vladimir Putin ordered to focus on in the May 2012 decrees, and more often from rare diseases and unknown causes, RANEPA analysts found. This is confirmed by data provided to Vedomosti by Rosstat.
Putin instructed to reduce mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, tuberculosis, road accidents, and infants by 2018. Mortality from the diseases listed in the decrees is indeed decreasing, but from other causes - in particular, relatively rare diseases of the nervous, endocrine and genitourinary systems, mental and behavioral disorders - is experiencing an unusual surge, RANEPA researcher Ramilya Khasanova shares her observations.
Regional statistics are also unusual, she continues: in Mordovia, Ivanovo, Amur, Nizhny Novgorod and Lipetsk regions in 2016, the mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases was minimal, and from other causes – maximum. It is the standardized mortality rate that is important, and not its absolute indicators, Khasanova notes: there may be more or fewer elderly people in a region, which affects the statistics. The regions are probably trying to fulfill the goals of the May decrees and the Concept of Demographic Policy until 2025, as noted in the RANEPA monitoring. In his last address to the Federal Assembly in February 2018, Vladimir Putin reported on successes in the fight against cardiovascular diseases.
In 2011–2016 The mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases has decreased throughout the country, most strongly in Mordovia, Ingushetia, the Amur, Tambov, Voronezh and Nizhny Novgorod regions and in Mari El, Svetlana Nikitina, head of the population and health statistics department of Rosstat, reported through the press service. And from diseases of the endocrine, nervous and genitourinary systems, as well as from mental disorders, the mortality rate from unclassified and other causes has actually increased significantly, she noted. In general, mortality from all of these factors increased by 1.7 times and in all the mentioned regions, except Ingushetia, it turned out to be higher than the average for Russia.
The point is to change the rules for coding causes of death, a representative of the Ministry of Health points out. It is unlikely that this is the only thing, Khasanova doubts - probably, some cardiovascular diseases are coded as “other”: for example, alcoholic myopathy or vascular parkinsonism can be recorded as diseases of the nervous system. Manipulation of mortality statistics exists, admits Larisa Popovich, director of the Institute of Health Economics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Mortality from cardiovascular problems is decreasing so rapidly because it is targeted by decrees: it is not surprising that diseases began to be transferred and recorded not as a cause, but as a reason. If a person died from vascular blockage due to an endocrine system disease, it is possible to record death from both cardiovascular disease and endocrine disease, she gives an example, depending on which guideline is more important at the time.
If a person dies in a hospital, the death code is assigned to him by a pathologist in the morgue at a medical organization, if at home or on the street - by a forensic expert. In January 2018, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said that pathological and anatomical services should be legally separated from the hospitals where they are located.
There is also a positive side to the fact that regions must fulfill the KPIs for mortality established by the president, says David Melik-Guseinov, director of the Research Institute of Healthcare Organization of the Moscow Department of Health: doctors diagnose these diseases more carefully and list them more correctly as causes of death. Before the “decrees,” recording mortality in Russia was of little concern to anyone, he says: for example, Alzheimer’s disease was not coded as a cause at all, but was written as a heart attack or stroke. However, if mortality from other causes continues to rise, we need to figure out whether the real causes are being recorded under “other,” notes Melik-Huseinov. Mortality statistics make it possible to understand how many people die and from what, how many beds and doctors clinics need, where and what kind of prevention programs to launch, how to organize clinical examination or home visiting, he explains.
Based on statistics, the authorities formulate targeted programs to combat diseases, says Popovich: for example, after the May decrees, huge resources were thrown into the fight against cardiovascular diseases. Diabetes, the proportion of mortality from which was not so high, was neglected - and it increases the likelihood of death from cardiovascular diseases by 3-6 times.
2017
Dynamics of infant mortality in Russia over 57 years
In 2017, the infant mortality rate in Russia was 5.5 per thousand births, compared to 6.0 in 2016. The graph (see below) shows the dynamics of this indicator in the period from 1960 to 2017.
Infant mortality rate (IMR) is the number of deaths of children under one year of age per 1000 live births. This indicator is often used as a comparison of the level of development of countries and indicates the development of the healthcare system.
Vascular pathologies and oncology are the main causes of death
"If we analyze the dynamics of demographic indicators in the Russian Federation, we can see that the most significant contribution to overall mortality falls on the elderly: in 2006 it was 67.3%, in 2011 - 71.4%, and in 2014 . - already 73.2%,” says the press service of the Ministry of Health.
At the same time, according to the ministry, “the contribution of persons of working age decreased from 30.9% in 2006, 27.2% in 2011 to 25.4% in 2014, and of persons under working age - from 1. 4% in 2006, 1.2% in 2011 to 1.2% in 2014."
"The main causes of mortality among the working-age population are:
- cardiovascular diseases (contribution to mortality - about 30%),
- external causes: injuries, poisoning, suicide (contribution to mortality - 28.2%),
- neoplasms (contribution to mortality - 14.1%),
- diseases of the digestive system (contribution to mortality - 8.9%)," the press release says.
It is emphasized that the vast majority of deaths from external causes occur while intoxicated.
"In addition, according to international experts from the World Health Organization, the state of alcoholism is closely associated with a much wider range of significant causes of death, primarily with diseases of the digestive system (liver cirrhosis, pancreatitis, pancreatic necrosis), the mortality rate from which among the working population increased by 9 .3%; diseases of the respiratory system (advanced cases of pneumonia) and cardiovascular system (hemorrhages in organs against the background of hypertensive crises, myocardial infarction, strokes),” the message said.